Ipswich 3-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ipswich at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ipswich welcome Accrington ST to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 7 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Ipswich — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League One this season, Accrington ST have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Ipswich have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ipswich, 1 for Accrington ST and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 49% versus Accrington ST 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 47% | Accrington ST 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.17 xG and Accrington ST 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.497 / defence 0.784 | Accrington ST attack 0.662 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.048. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 80 Ipswich games / 78 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 75% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 8%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Accrington ST 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Accrington ST 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 75% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 37% | xG Ipswich 2.17 / Accrington ST 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.497 / def 0.784 | Accrington ST attack 0.662 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Accrington ST xG
37%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Accrington ST kick off?
Ipswich vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Ipswich 3 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Ipswich vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Accrington ST part of?
Ipswich vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 75% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 8% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ipswich and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 2W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Accrington ST in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 3-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
75%
1.34
18%
5.70
8%
13.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.72
0.54
Accrington ST xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
13.09
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
43%
2.30
1%
114.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.54 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 36W 27D 15L from 78 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 25W 20D 33L across 78 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Accrington ST heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 21W 14D 4L from 39 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 8W 9D 22L across 39 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.14 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 36W 27D 15L in their last 78 games (1.73 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 25W 20D 33L in their last 78 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Accrington ST away?
Ipswich's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.97 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
0
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Accrington ST have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2023, when Ipswich 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Accrington ST?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 46%, Accrington ST 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ipswich) and 49% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Accrington ST in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ipswich's recent matches and 41% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ipswich's recent games and 49% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Accrington ST 3-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.17 xG and Accrington ST 0.54 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.50 / defence 0.78 against Accrington ST attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 80/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 75% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 8%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 47%, Accrington ST 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.