Peterborough 2-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Portsmouth travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Peterborough) versus 1.00 (Portsmouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Peterborough, 1 for Portsmouth and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 46% versus Portsmouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 61% | Portsmouth 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.36 xG and Portsmouth 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.047 / defence 1.084 | Portsmouth attack 0.886 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.129. Data: 25 Peterborough games / 71 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Portsmouth 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 40% | Portsmouth 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Peterborough 1.36 / Portsmouth 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.047 / def 1.084 | Portsmouth attack 0.886 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Portsmouth xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Portsmouth kick off?
Peterborough vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Peterborough vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Portsmouth part of?
Peterborough vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 43% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Peterborough and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Portsmouth?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Portsmouth in?
Peterborough (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.05x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.66
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.45
1.08
Portsmouth xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.08 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 21W 12D 38L from 71 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth, meanwhile, have gone 29W 23D 19L across 71 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portsmouth by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 14W 8D 13L from 35 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portsmouth's away record stands at 11W 11D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.42 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 21W 12D 38L in their last 71 games (1.06 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 29W 23D 19L in their last 71 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Portsmouth away?
Peterborough's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.43 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Portsmouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Peterborough's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Peterborough
0
Draws
3
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Portsmouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 1, Portsmouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Peterborough 0-1 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 43%, Portsmouth 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 37% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Portsmouth in 40%; Peterborough have failed to score in 34% of games; Portsmouth in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Peterborough's recent matches and 37% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 37% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Portsmouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Portsmouth 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.36 xG and Portsmouth 1.08 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Portsmouth attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 25/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 43% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Portsmouth 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.