Ipswich 4-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 35 as Ipswich welcome Burton Albion to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ipswich have posted 5W 4D 1L at Portman Road — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 1.50 PPG, Burton Albion 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 50% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 47% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.43 xG and Burton Albion 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.409 / defence 0.840 | Burton Albion attack 1.080 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.082. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Ipswich games / 78 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 69% | Draw 18% | Burton Albion 13%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Burton Albion 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Burton Albion 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 69% | Draw 18% | Burton Albion 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 57% | xG Ipswich 2.43 / Burton Albion 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.409 / def 0.840 | Burton Albion attack 1.080 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Burton Albion xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Burton Albion kick off?
Ipswich vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Ipswich 4 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Ipswich vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Burton Albion part of?
Ipswich vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 69% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ipswich and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 2W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Burton Albion in?
Ipswich (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.41) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.48
13%
7.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.41
0.98
Burton Albion xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
7.72
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
9%
11.36
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
1%
87.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.98 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 35W 27D 16L from 78 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 36L across 78 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 20W 14D 4L from 38 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 7W 8D 23L across 38 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.17 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 35W 27D 16L in their last 78 games (1.69 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 23W 19D 36L in their last 78 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Burton Albion away?
Ipswich's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.95 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
0
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Burton Albion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Ipswich 4-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Burton Albion?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 47%, Burton Albion 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ipswich) and 58% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Burton Albion in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ipswich's recent matches and 58% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Ipswich's matches and 58% of Burton Albion's.
Do Ipswich and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Burton Albion 4-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.43 xG and Burton Albion 0.98 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.41 / defence 0.84 against Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.34, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 69% | Draw 18% | Burton Albion 13%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 47%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.