Plymouth 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Home Park this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Derby's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Derby have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Plymouth, 2.00 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derby in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 49% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.06 xG and Derby 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.330 / defence 0.875 | Derby attack 1.119 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.035. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 80 Plymouth games / 34 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 22% | Derby 17%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Derby 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 22% | Derby 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Plymouth 2.06 / Derby 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.330 / def 0.875 | Derby attack 1.119 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Derby kick off?
Plymouth vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Derby?
Plymouth 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Plymouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Derby part of?
Plymouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 61% chance of winning, Derby a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plymouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Derby in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.12x) against Plymouth's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 80/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.64
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.07
1.01
Derby xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
45.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.01 for Derby, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 80 games, going 44W 19D 17L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.45 PPG from 80 outings (31W 23D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 28W 5D 6L across 39 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 0.92 points per game from 39 outings (8W 12D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.25 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 44W 19D 17L in their last 80 games (1.89 PPG), while Derby have gone 31W 23D 26L in their last 80 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Derby away?
Plymouth's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.28 PPG; Derby away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Plymouth 2-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Derby?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 41%, Derby 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Plymouth) and 36% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Derby in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Plymouth's recent matches and 44% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Plymouth's recent games and 36% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Derby tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Derby 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.06 xG and Derby 1.01 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Derby attack 1.12 / defence 1.20, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 61% | Draw 22% | Derby 17%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Derby 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.