Charlton 1-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Accrington ST travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 2W 2D 6L at The Valley — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Valley this season.
Accrington ST — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.30 PPG, Accrington ST 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charlton, 2 for Accrington ST and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 53% versus Accrington ST 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Accrington ST 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.58 xG and Accrington ST 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.041 / defence 1.159 | Accrington ST attack 0.633 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.035. Data: 80 Charlton games / 79 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 17%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Accrington ST 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Accrington ST 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Charlton 1.58 / Accrington ST 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.041 / def 1.159 | Accrington ST attack 0.633 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Charlton (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Accrington ST xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Accrington ST kick off?
Charlton vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Charlton 1 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Charlton vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Accrington ST part of?
Charlton vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 57% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charlton and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 2W.
What form are Charlton and Accrington ST in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.82
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.34
0.76
Accrington ST xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Charlton and 0.76 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 79 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 27W 18D 34L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 25W 20D 34L from 79 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.25 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (16W 8D 15L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 8W 9D 22L from 39 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.13 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 27W 18D 34L in their last 79 games (1.25 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 25W 20D 34L in their last 79 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Accrington ST away?
Charlton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.44 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Accrington ST runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Charlton's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Charlton
2
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Accrington ST have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Charlton 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Accrington ST 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 49% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Accrington ST in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Charlton's recent matches and 38% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 49% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 36, as Charlton and Accrington ST drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.58 xG and Accrington ST 0.76 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Accrington ST attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 57% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 17%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Accrington ST 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.25 PPG, Accrington ST 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.