Charlton 1-2 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Bolton travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bolton — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Bolton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.20 PPG versus Bolton's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bolton, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Charlton.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Bolton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bolton have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bolton trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Bolton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Bolton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.44 xG and Bolton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.138 / defence 1.075 | Bolton attack 1.096 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.126. Data: 72 Charlton games / 74 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 40% | Draw 26% | Bolton 35%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Bolton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Bolton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 40% | Draw 26% | Bolton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Charlton 1.44 / Bolton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.138 / def 1.075 | Bolton attack 1.096 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Charlton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bolton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bolton kick off?
Charlton vs Bolton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Charlton 1 - 2 Bolton.
Where is Charlton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bolton part of?
Charlton vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 40% chance of winning, Bolton a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Charlton and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 3W.
What form are Charlton and Bolton in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.14) and Bolton's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.76
1.33
Bolton xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Charlton and 1.33 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 25W 18D 29L from 72 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 34W 16D 22L across 72 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.29 PPG, Bolton on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 16W 8D 11L from 35 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 13W 6D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.43 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 25W 18D 29L in their last 72 games (1.29 PPG), while Bolton have gone 34W 16D 22L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bolton away?
Charlton's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.60 PPG; Bolton away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Charlton or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bolton in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Bolton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Bolton have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Bolton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charlton) and 43% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bolton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Charlton's recent matches and 43% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charlton's recent games and 43% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bolton tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bolton in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.44 xG and Bolton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Bolton attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 40% | Draw 26% | Bolton 35%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Bolton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, Bolton 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.