Lincoln 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Lincoln welcome Cambridge United to LNER Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 2W 8D 0L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambridge United — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Lincoln) versus 0.50 (Cambridge United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lincoln register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cambridge United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lincoln, 2 for Cambridge United and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Cambridge United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lincoln trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cambridge United trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 56% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 44% | Cambridge United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.872 / defence 0.847 | Cambridge United attack 0.815 / defence 1.556. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.129. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.556 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Lincoln games / 72 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 61% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 16%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Cambridge United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lincoln 70% | Cambridge United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 61% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Lincoln 1.79 / Cambridge United 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.872 / def 0.847 | Cambridge United attack 0.815 / def 1.556 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cambridge United xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Cambridge United kick off?
Lincoln vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Lincoln vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Cambridge United part of?
Lincoln vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 61% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lincoln and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Cambridge United?
Record (3 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 2W.
What form are Lincoln and Cambridge United in?
Lincoln (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.87) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.36
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.57
0.78
Cambridge United xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
3%
37.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.78 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln come into this having played 71 games, going 20W 22D 29L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.14 PPG from 71 outings (22W 15D 34L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.15 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lincoln's home form reads 9W 15D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.94 points per game from 35 outings (9W 6D 20L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.10 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 20W 22D 29L in their last 71 games (1.15 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Cambridge United away?
Lincoln's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.20 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Mar 2024, when Lincoln won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lincoln
2
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Cambridge United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 4, Cambridge United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lincoln 1-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Cambridge United?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 60%, Cambridge United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Lincoln) and 60% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 31% of games; Cambridge United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Cambridge United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lincoln's games and 57% of Cambridge United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Lincoln's recent games and 60% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Lincoln and Cambridge United drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 0.78 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.56, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 61% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 16%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 44%, Cambridge United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.15 PPG, Cambridge United 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.