Charlton 2-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Plymouth meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 2W 3D 4L this season (9 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Valley this season.
Plymouth have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Plymouth arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Plymouth — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 65% and Plymouth 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 59% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.27 xG and Plymouth 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.056 / defence 1.350 | Plymouth attack 1.193 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.349. Data: 17 Charlton games / 17 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 22% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 58%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | Plymouth 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 56% | Plymouth 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 22% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Charlton 1.27 / Plymouth 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.056 / def 1.350 | Plymouth attack 1.193 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Plymouth xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Plymouth kick off?
Charlton vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Plymouth?
Charlton 2 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Charlton vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Plymouth part of?
Charlton vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 22% chance of winning, Plymouth a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Charlton and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Plymouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.06) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.19x) against Charlton's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
22%
4.59
20%
4.91
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.45
2.17
Plymouth xG
4.59
22%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
11%
8.78
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
2%
40.26
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Charlton and 2.17 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 5W 4D 8L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 10W 6D 1L from 17 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.88 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Plymouth in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 10W 6D 1L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.00 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 5-1 on 16 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Plymouth 2-0 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 62%, Plymouth 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Charlton and 62% for Plymouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Charlton's games and 62% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Charlton's matches and 62% of Plymouth's.
Do Charlton and Plymouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Plymouth 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.27 xG and Plymouth 2.17 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.06 / defence 1.35 against Plymouth attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 22% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 58%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 59%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.