Crewe 2-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gillingham at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mornflake Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Gillingham in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crewe have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 1W 3D 4L at Mornflake Stadium — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 5D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gillingham are 0.70 PPG clear of Crewe in recent League One fixtures (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Crewe have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Gillingham in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Crewe — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Gillingham — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 53% versus Gillingham 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 35% | Gillingham 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 0.89 xG and Gillingham 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.699 / defence 1.609 | Gillingham attack 0.762 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.349. Crewe's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Crewe games / 17 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 20% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 55%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Gillingham 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Gillingham (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gillingham at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Crewe 62% | Gillingham 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 20% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Crewe 0.89 / Gillingham 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.699 / def 1.609 | Gillingham attack 0.762 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Gillingham xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Gillingham kick off?
Crewe vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Crewe 2 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Crewe vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Gillingham part of?
Crewe vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 20% chance of winning, Gillingham a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crewe and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in?
Crewe (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.70x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.76x) against Crewe's defence (1.61x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
20%
4.96
24%
4.09
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.54
1.65
Gillingham xG
4.96
20%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
4%
25.94
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Crewe and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Crewe and 1.65 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 6D 10L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham's form line: 3W 8D 6L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gillingham are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crewe have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.94 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 1W 6D 10L in their last 17 games (0.53 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Gillingham away?
Gillingham's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 0.75 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crewe
3
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crewe have won 4, Gillingham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Gillingham?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Crewe, 75% for Gillingham — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crewe) and 25% (Gillingham).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crewe's games and 75% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crewe's recent games and 25% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Gillingham tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Gillingham 2-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 0.89 xG and Gillingham 1.65 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gillingham landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.70 / defence 1.61 against Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 20% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 55%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 35%, Gillingham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gillingham arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Crewe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.