Burton Albion 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 17 as Burton Albion welcome Charlton to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 2L this season (8 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.20 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 86% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burton Albion 56% and Charlton 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 44% | Charlton 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.948 / defence 1.230 | Charlton attack 0.803 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.350. Data: 16 Burton Albion games / 16 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 35% | Draw 26% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 88% | Charlton 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 35% | Draw 26% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Burton Albion 1.26 / Charlton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.948 / def 1.230 | Charlton attack 0.803 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Charlton xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Charlton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Charlton part of?
Burton Albion vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 35% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Burton Albion and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.95x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.79
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.59
1.33
Charlton xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.33 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 4D 6L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.38 PPG, Charlton on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burton Albion's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.31 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 69%.
Last 16 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Charlton have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Charlton away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.57 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Burton Albion at 86%, Charlton at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Burton Albion and 71% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Burton Albion's games and 86% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Burton Albion's matches and 71% of Charlton's.
Do Burton Albion and Charlton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Charlton in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 35% | Draw 26% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 44%, Charlton 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.38 PPG, Charlton 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.