Accrington ST 1-4 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 17 as Accrington ST welcome Plymouth to Wham Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Accrington ST — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 4W 1D 1L this season (6 games, 2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth away from home this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 60% and Plymouth 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 60% | Plymouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.23 xG and Plymouth 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.993 / defence 1.196 | Plymouth attack 1.042 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.350. Data: 15 Accrington ST games / 16 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 28% | Draw 24% | Plymouth 48%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Plymouth 2.08. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 67% | Plymouth 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 28% | Draw 24% | Plymouth 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Accrington ST 1.23 / Plymouth 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.993 / def 1.196 | Plymouth attack 1.042 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Plymouth xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Plymouth kick off?
Accrington ST vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Accrington ST 1 - 4 Plymouth.
Where is Accrington ST vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Plymouth part of?
Accrington ST vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 28% chance of winning, Plymouth a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Accrington ST and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Plymouth in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
28%
3.59
24%
4.16
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.91
1.68
Plymouth xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
5%
19.31
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.68 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 6W 3D 6L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 9W 6D 0L from 15 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.87 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Plymouth in 67%.
Last 15 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 9W 6D 0L in their last 15 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Plymouth away?
Accrington ST's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 2.17 PPG; Plymouth away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Plymouth in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Plymouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2023, when Accrington ST 0-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Accrington ST at 67%, Plymouth at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Accrington ST and 67% for Plymouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Plymouth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Accrington ST's games and 67% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Accrington ST's matches and 67% of Plymouth's.
Do Accrington ST and Plymouth tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Accrington ST 1-4 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.23 xG and Plymouth 1.68 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Plymouth attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 28% | Draw 24% | Plymouth 48%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 60%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.