Morecambe 2-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Morecambe vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Mazuma Stadium to face Morecambe in League One, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Morecambe have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Morecambe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Morecambe have posted 3W 2D 3L at Mazuma Stadium — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in League One this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Charlton are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Morecambe — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Charlton — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Morecambe 65% and Charlton 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 59% | Charlton 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.15 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.956 / defence 1.219 | Charlton attack 0.806 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.295. Data: 17 Morecambe games / 18 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 33% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Morecambe 38% | Charlton 75%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 33% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Morecambe 1.15 / Charlton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.956 / def 1.219 | Charlton attack 0.806 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Charlton kick off?
Morecambe vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Charlton?
Morecambe 2 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Morecambe vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Charlton part of?
Morecambe vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 33% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Morecambe and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Morecambe and Charlton in?
Morecambe (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (0.96) and Charlton's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.81x) against Morecambe's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.64
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.42
1.27
Charlton xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.27 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Morecambe have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 5W 3D 9L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Morecambe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 6W 3D 8L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Morecambe against 1.24 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Morecambe have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Morecambe are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.41 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Charlton in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Charlton in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Charlton have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Charlton away?
Morecambe's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.38 PPG; Charlton away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Morecambe
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 2, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Charlton 2-3 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Charlton?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 38%, Charlton 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Morecambe) and 62% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Morecambe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Morecambe's games and 75% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Morecambe's recent games and 62% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Charlton tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Charlton in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Charlton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Morecambe and Charlton drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.15 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Morecambe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Charlton attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 33% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 59%, Charlton 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.06 PPG, Charlton 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.