Sunderland 2-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sunderland welcome Ipswich to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Sunderland have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 6W 0D 1L this season (7 games, 2.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Ipswich — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.25 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.60 PPG, Ipswich 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sunderland 47% and Ipswich 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sunderland 73% | Ipswich 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.55 xG and Ipswich 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.154 / defence 0.849 | Ipswich attack 1.155 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.349. Data: 15 Sunderland games / 17 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 43% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 33%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Ipswich 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 43% | Ipswich 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 43% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sunderland 1.55 / Ipswich 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.154 / def 0.849 | Ipswich attack 1.155 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Ipswich xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Ipswich kick off?
Sunderland vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Sunderland 2 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is Sunderland vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Ipswich part of?
Sunderland vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 43% chance of winning, Ipswich a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sunderland and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Ipswich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Ipswich in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.15) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.04
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.87
1.32
Ipswich xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.32 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 9W 1D 5L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich's form line: 6W 5D 4L from 15 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.87 PPG, Ipswich on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 2.57 PPG from 7 outings (6W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.07 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich in 73%.
Last 15 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 9W 1D 5L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Ipswich away?
Sunderland's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.57 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sunderland's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Ipswich have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 43%, Ipswich 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Sunderland and 86% for Ipswich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Sunderland's games and 71% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sunderland's matches and 86% of Ipswich's.
Do Sunderland and Ipswich tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Ipswich 2-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.55 xG and Ipswich 1.32 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.15 / defence 0.85 against Ipswich attack 1.16 / defence 1.17, drawn from 15/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 43% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 33%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 73%, Ipswich 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Ipswich's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.87 PPG, Ipswich 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.