Cheltenham 2-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jonny-Rocks Stadium plays host to Cheltenham versus Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cheltenham have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham at Jonny-Rocks Stadium this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shrewsbury (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.20 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cheltenham 69% and Shrewsbury 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 50% | Shrewsbury 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.39 xG and Shrewsbury 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.978 / defence 1.059 | Shrewsbury attack 0.576 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.349. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Cheltenham games / 16 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 50% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 22%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Shrewsbury 4.55. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cheltenham are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cheltenham 62% | Shrewsbury 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 50% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Cheltenham 1.39 / Shrewsbury 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.978 / def 1.059 | Shrewsbury attack 0.576 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Shrewsbury xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury?
Cheltenham 2 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury part of?
Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 50% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cheltenham and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Shrewsbury in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.98) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.58x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.63
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.21
0.82
Shrewsbury xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.82 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 5W 5D 6L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shrewsbury's form line: 4W 3D 9L from 16 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Cheltenham against 0.94 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Cheltenham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shrewsbury's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.94 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Shrewsbury away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.75 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cheltenham go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Cheltenham
0
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Shrewsbury?
From 8 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 6, Shrewsbury have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Shrewsbury 0-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Shrewsbury?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 62%, Shrewsbury 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cheltenham) and 25% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Shrewsbury?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cheltenham's games and 50% of Shrewsbury's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cheltenham's recent games and 25% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Shrewsbury 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.39 xG and Shrewsbury 0.82 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Shrewsbury attack 0.58 / defence 1.23, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 50% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 22%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 50%, Shrewsbury 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.25 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.