AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AFC Wimbledon face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One (matchday 16). Kick-off is Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
AFC Wimbledon at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stockport County stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Stockport County have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for AFC Wimbledon.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Mar 2026, ended AFC Wimbledon 0–3 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 39% versus Stockport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stockport County 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.860 / defence 1.306 | Stockport County attack 0.995 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.107. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from AFC Wimbledon's last 42 games and Stockport County's last 86.
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.05 | Draw 3.89 | Stockport County 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AFC Wimbledon 50% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 16 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.25 / Stockport County 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.860 / def 1.306 | Stockport County attack 0.995 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Stockport County xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 33% chance of winning, Stockport County a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.86) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AFC Wimbledon's last 42 games and Stockport County's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.89
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.69
1.44
Stockport County xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.44 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 35W 21D 32L from 88 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 44W 24D 20L across 88 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.43 PPG, Stockport County on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 22W 9D 13L from their last 44 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 16W 15D 13L across their last 44 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 35W 21D 32L in their last 88 games (1.43 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 44W 24D 20L in their last 88 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stockport County away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.70 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.43 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stockport County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Stockport County have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won Stockport County 3-0 AFC Wimbledon.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
6
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Stockport County have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Stockport County 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 32%, Stockport County 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AFC Wimbledon) and 43% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 57% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 43% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 77% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 0-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.43 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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