🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Plymouth at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

AFC Wimbledon have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Plymouth are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 1W, Plymouth 2W, 0D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 39% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Plymouth 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.92 xG and Plymouth 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.798 / defence 1.326 | Plymouth attack 1.399 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.134. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 AFC Wimbledon games / 42 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 15% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 65%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Plymouth 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 50% | Plymouth 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights