AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Wimbledon have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Plymouth are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 1W, Plymouth 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 39% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.92 xG and Plymouth 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.798 / defence 1.326 | Plymouth attack 1.399 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.134. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 AFC Wimbledon games / 42 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 15% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 65%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Plymouth 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 50% | Plymouth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 15% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.92 / Plymouth 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.798 / def 1.326 | Plymouth attack 1.399 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Plymouth xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 15% chance of winning, Plymouth a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.40x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
15%
6.47
20%
5.02
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
3.02
2.10
Plymouth xG
6.47
15%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
12%
8.20
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
2%
53.03
26%
3.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 2.10 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 34W 21D 33L from 88 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 39L across 88 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.24 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 20W 9D 14L from 43 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 12W 8D 23L across 43 trips, a 1.02 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.33 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 34W 21D 33L in their last 88 games (1.40 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 30W 19D 39L in their last 88 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Plymouth away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.60 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.02 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Plymouth in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (AFC Wimbledon) and 37% (Plymouth) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 33% of games; Plymouth in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 37% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 1-3 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.92 xG and Plymouth 2.10 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.80 / defence 1.33 against Plymouth attack 1.40 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 15% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 65%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.40 PPG, Plymouth 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.