Bolton 2-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bolton at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bolton and Stockport County meet at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 42. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stockport County (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stockport County's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Bolton against 1.40 for Stockport County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bolton have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Stockport County in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Stockport County, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
It is worth noting that Stockport County have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 59% versus Stockport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 52% | Stockport County 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.54 xG and Stockport County 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.072 / defence 0.985 | Stockport County attack 0.928 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.098. Data: 86 Bolton games / 85 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 25%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 4.00. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Bolton 70% | Stockport County 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Bolton 1.54 / Stockport County 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.072 / def 0.985 | Stockport County attack 0.928 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Bolton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Stockport County xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Stockport County kick off?
Bolton vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Stockport County?
Bolton 2 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Bolton vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Stockport County part of?
Bolton vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 50% chance of winning, Stockport County a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bolton and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Bolton 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 3W.
What form are Bolton and Stockport County in?
Bolton (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bolton's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.93x) against Bolton's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 86/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.90
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.54
1.00
Stockport County xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
18.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bolton and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bolton and 1.00 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 86 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 38W 23D 25L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 43W 23D 20L from 86 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Bolton against 1.77 for Stockport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.88 PPG from 42 outings (23W 10D 9L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 15W 14D 13L from 42 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bolton are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.51 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 38W 23D 25L in their last 86 games (1.59 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 43W 23D 20L in their last 86 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Stockport County away?
Bolton's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.88 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Bolton or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stockport County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 5-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Bolton
1
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stockport County?
From 5 meetings on record, Bolton have won 1, Stockport County have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bolton 4-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bolton see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 57%, Stockport County 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Bolton) and 40% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Bolton have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bolton's games and 57% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Bolton's recent games and 40% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Stockport County tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton and Stockport County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton and Stockport County finished level at 2-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.54 xG and Stockport County 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 25%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.59 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.