Plymouth 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Bradford meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 3W 1D 6L at Home Park — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bradford have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bradford are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bradford in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bradford — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Bradford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 59% | Bradford 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.88 xG and Bradford 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.719 / defence 1.363 | Bradford attack 0.982 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.080. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Plymouth games / 17 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 23% | Draw 27% | Bradford 50%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Bradford 2.00. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 60% | Bradford 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 23% | Draw 27% | Bradford 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Plymouth 0.88 / Bradford 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.719 / def 1.363 | Bradford attack 0.982 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Bradford (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bradford xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Bradford kick off?
Plymouth vs Bradford kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Bradford?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Plymouth vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Bradford part of?
Plymouth vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 23% chance of winning, Bradford a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Plymouth and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Bradford in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bradford (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.98x) against Plymouth's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
23%
4.36
27%
3.74
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.32
1.45
Bradford xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.45 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Plymouth's recent record stands at 16W 14D 33L from 63 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 14L across 63 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bradford by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 11W 8D 12L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 7W 13D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.41 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Bradford in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 16W 14D 33L in their last 63 games (0.98 PPG), while Bradford have gone 30W 19D 14L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Bradford away?
Plymouth's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.32 PPG; Bradford away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Bradford in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bradford?
From 3 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Bradford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Plymouth 2-0 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Plymouth, 61% for Bradford — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Plymouth) and 45% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bradford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Plymouth's games and 61% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Plymouth's matches and 45% of Bradford's.
Do Plymouth and Bradford tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bradford in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.88 xG and Bradford 1.45 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.72 / defence 1.36 against Bradford attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 23% | Draw 27% | Bradford 50%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 59%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.