Mansfield Town 1-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mansfield Town have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 4W 3D 3L at One Call Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at One Call Stadium.
Peterborough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Peterborough have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Mansfield Town, 1.60 for Peterborough — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mansfield Town, 0 for Peterborough and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2025, ended 4–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mansfield Town 60% and Peterborough 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 57% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.30 xG and Peterborough 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.946 / defence 0.833 | Peterborough attack 1.051 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.127. Data: 74 Mansfield Town games / 76 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 44% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 28%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 40% | Peterborough 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 44% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Mansfield Town 1.30 / Peterborough 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.946 / def 0.833 | Peterborough attack 1.051 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Peterborough xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Peterborough kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Peterborough?
Mansfield Town 1 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Peterborough part of?
Mansfield Town vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 44% chance of winning, Peterborough a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mansfield Town and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Peterborough?
Record (2 meetings): Mansfield Town 2W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Peterborough in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (0.95) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.05x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 74/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.57
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.28
0.99
Peterborough xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.99 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 25W 18D 31L from 74 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 35L across 74 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.20 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 14W 7D 15L from 36 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 10W 5D 21L across 36 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.45 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 61%.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 25W 18D 31L in their last 74 games (1.26 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 25W 14D 35L in their last 74 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Peterborough away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.36 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Peterborough?
From 5 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Peterborough 2-1 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 56%, Peterborough 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mansfield Town) and 61% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mansfield Town's games and 61% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Mansfield Town's matches and 61% of Peterborough's.
Do Mansfield Town and Peterborough tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.30 xG and Peterborough 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Peterborough attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 44% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 28%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 57%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.26 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.