Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host AFC Wimbledon at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 2D 4L at Pirelli Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burton Albion at 1.20 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.66 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.933 / defence 1.073 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.891 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.117. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 88 Burton Albion games / 41 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | AFC Wimbledon 4.17. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 60% | AFC Wimbledon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Burton Albion 1.66 / AFC Wimbledon 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.933 / def 1.073 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.891 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 51% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 2 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.11
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.73
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 23W 26D 39L from 88 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 36W 21D 31L across 88 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.08 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 14W 10D 20L from 44 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 14W 12D 18L across 44 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.18 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 23W 26D 39L in their last 88 games (1.08 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 36W 21D 31L in their last 88 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
AFC Wimbledon's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.18 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burton Albion go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2026, when Burton Albion won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
2
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
From 5 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Burton Albion 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Burton Albion) and 43% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Burton Albion's recent games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.66 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 88/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.08 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.