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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Bolton meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage at Lamex Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bolton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bolton are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Bolton and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (70 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bolton — key trading statistics (70 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Bolton 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Bolton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.17 xG and Bolton 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.860 / defence 0.913 | Bolton attack 0.886 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.102. Data: 70 Stevenage games / 72 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 30% | Bolton 28%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Bolton 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bolton (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Bolton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 2 | Bolton 2W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Stevenage 4 – 8 Bolton • H2H markets: BTTS 75% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Stevenage 0% / Draw 50% / Bolton 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Bolton (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Stevenage as more likely (home 42% / draw 30% / away 28%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.06 (66% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 75% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 41% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
📈 Recent Form
• Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L • Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W • Stevenage home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Bolton away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: Bolton lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Stevenage): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Bolton): Poisson xG of 0.89 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.6 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.06 (66% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 41% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Bolton on PPG but Poisson rates Stevenage higher (42% vs 28% for Bolton) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 30% | Bolton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Stevenage 1.17 / Bolton 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.860 / def 0.913 | Bolton attack 0.886 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bolton xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bolton kick off?
Stevenage vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 January 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Stevenage 0 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Stevenage vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bolton part of?
Stevenage vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 42% chance of winning, Bolton a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Stevenage and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bolton?
• Record (4 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 2 | Bolton 2W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Stevenage 4 – 8 Bolton • H2H markets: BTTS 75% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Stevenage 0% / Draw 50% / Bolton 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Bolton (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Stevenage as more likely (home 42% / draw 30% / away 28%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.06 (66% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 75% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 41% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
What form are Stevenage and Bolton in?
• Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L • Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W • Stevenage home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Bolton away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: Bolton lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Stevenage): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Bolton): Poisson xG of 0.89 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.6 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.06 (66% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 41% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Bolton on PPG but Poisson rates Stevenage higher (42% vs 28% for Bolton) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Stevenage vs Bolton?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture