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Poisson rates Stockport County at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 16 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stockport County away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

Stockport County have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against AFC Wimbledon's 1 victories.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with Stockport County winning.

It is worth noting that Stockport County have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

AFC Wimbledon trading profile (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Stockport County trading profile (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 39% versus Stockport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stockport County 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.860 / defence 1.306 | Stockport County attack 0.995 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.107. Data: 42 AFC Wimbledon games / 86 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 50% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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