Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Teplice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Arena Na Stinadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Sparta Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.20 PPG clear of Teplice over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Sparta Praha, who have 4 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Teplice 2–2 Sparta Praha — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Sparta Praha 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Sparta Praha 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Teplice surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Sparta Praha have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.90 xG and Sparta Praha 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.813 / defence 0.950 | Sparta Praha attack 1.130 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.199. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.765, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Data: built from Teplice's last 57 games and Sparta Praha's last 57.
Result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.12 | Draw 3.13 | Sparta Praha 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Teplice 0.90 / Sparta Praha 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.813 / def 0.950 | Sparta Praha attack 1.130 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sparta Praha xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Teplice 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 24% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Teplice and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Teplice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.13x) against Teplice's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 57 games and Sparta Praha's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
24%
4.12
32%
3.13
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.19
1.29
Sparta Praha xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Teplice and 1.29 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 19D 25L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 36W 12D 14L from 62 games, 1.94 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 31 home games (13W 5D 13L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 16W 6D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.89 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 66%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 19D 25L in their last 62 games (1.18 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 36W 12D 14L in their last 62 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.42 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Teplice 0-3 Sparta Praha on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Teplice
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Sparta Praha 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Teplice) and 58% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 58% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Teplice's recent games and 58% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Teplice's recent matches and 77% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.90 xG and Sparta Praha 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.13 / defence 0.77, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 24% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 44%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.