Sparta Praha 3-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.30 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 65% versus FK Jablonec 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | FK Jablonec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.08 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.539 / defence 1.054 | FK Jablonec attack 1.034 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.191. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.539 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Sparta Praha games / 58 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 22%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 4.55. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 80% | FK Jablonec 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Sparta Praha 2.08 / FK Jablonec 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.539 / def 1.054 | FK Jablonec attack 1.034 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha 3 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 54% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Record (8 meetings): Sparta Praha 5W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.03x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.08
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.38
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
3%
37.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.30 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha's recent record stands at 37W 12D 14L from 63 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 17L across 63 games — 1.81 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Sparta Praha against 1.81 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sparta Praha have managed 20W 6D 5L from 31 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 16W 4D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.57 scored and 0.97 conceded. Sparta Praha's scoring rate against FK Jablonec's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 37W 12D 14L in their last 63 games (1.95 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 34W 12D 17L in their last 63 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.13 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 74%, FK Jablonec 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Sparta Praha) and 42% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 42%; FK Jablonec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 74% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 36% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 42% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 3-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.08 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.54 / defence 1.05 against FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 22%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, FK Jablonec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.95 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.