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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Arnosta Kostala plays host to Pardubice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Arnosta Kostala — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Pardubice, 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pardubice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sigma Olomouc in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Sigma Olomouc have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Pardubice's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sigma Olomouc have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Sigma Olomouc 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.24 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.805 / defence 1.079 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.087 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.199. Data: 57 Pardubice games / 57 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 32% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 39%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 60% | Sigma Olomouc 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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