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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Zlin travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Zlin — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.80 PPG, Zlin 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bohemians 1905: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Zlin, with 2 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Zlin trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 37% versus Zlin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 37% | Zlin 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.714 / defence 0.954 | Zlin attack 0.767 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.176. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Bohemians 1905 games / 27 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Zlin 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.

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