Bohemians 1905 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Zlin travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Zlin — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.80 PPG, Zlin 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bohemians 1905: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Zlin, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Zlin trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 37% versus Zlin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 37% | Zlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.714 / defence 0.954 | Zlin attack 0.767 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.176. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Bohemians 1905 games / 27 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Zlin 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.26 / Zlin 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.714 / def 0.954 | Zlin attack 0.767 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Zlin xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 44% chance of winning, Zlin a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Record (8 meetings): Bohemians 1905 5W | Draws 2 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.71) and Zlin's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.09
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.12
0.86
Zlin xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.86 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 7W 6D 14L from 27 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 12L across 27 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.00 PPG, Zlin on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 3W 3D 7L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 0.92 PPG; Zlin away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bohemians 1905 31% BTTS, Zlin 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Bohemians 1905 and 38% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zlin in 38%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 46% of games; Zlin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 38% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 38% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Zlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 2-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against Zlin attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 37%, Zlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG, Zlin 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.