Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Slovácko 3W, Hradec Králové 4W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 39% versus Hradec Králové 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 44% | Hradec Králové 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.014 / defence 1.049 | Hradec Králové attack 0.914 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.180. Data: 57 Slovácko games / 57 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 41% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Hradec Králové 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 41% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Slovácko 1.38 / Hradec Králové 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.014 / def 1.049 | Hradec Králové attack 0.914 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Slovácko 1 - 3 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 41% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slovácko and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 4W.
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in?
Slovácko (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.01) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.91x) against Slovácko's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.33
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.51
1.13
Hradec Králové xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.13 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko's recent record stands at 14W 18D 29L from 61 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 22L across 61 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovácko heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 10W 10D 10L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 10W 5D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.26 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 14W 18D 29L in their last 61 games (0.98 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovácko's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.33 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 40%, Hradec Králové 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Slovácko) and 50% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 40% of games; Hradec Králové in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Slovácko's recent matches and 40% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 1-3 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Hradec Králové attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 41% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 44%, Hradec Králové 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.