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Poisson model favours Plzen (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Teplice.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Teplice travel to Doosan Arena to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Plzen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Plzen's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Doosan Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Arena.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Teplice, with 3 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Plzen winning.

The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Plzen in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Teplice in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Teplice 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.34 xG and Teplice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.162 / defence 0.844 | Teplice attack 0.828 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.187. Data: 56 Plzen games / 56 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 31% | Teplice 22%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 4.55. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.

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