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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Karviná.

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Full Analysis

epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sparta Praha's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at epet ARENA this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Karviná away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.20 PPG lead over Karviná (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Karviná in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Karviná winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 67% and Karviná 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 64% | Karviná 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.73 xG and Karviná 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.643 / defence 1.214 | Karviná attack 1.094 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.196. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.643 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Sparta Praha games / 56 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 61% | Draw 19% | Karviná 20%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Karviná 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.31. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.31 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.73 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 90% | Karviná 60% BTTS from recent games.

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