Teplice 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Teplice's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dukla Praha — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dukla Praha's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Teplice have won 1, Dukla Praha 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Teplice 3–1 Dukla Praha — a Teplice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 73%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Dukla Praha 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.913 / defence 1.058 | Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Teplice's last 54 games and Dukla Praha's last 54.
Result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.91 | Draw 3.57 | Dukla Praha 5.08. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Teplice 1.44 / Dukla Praha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.913 / def 1.058 | Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Teplice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Dukla Praha FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Teplice 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 52% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Dukla Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Teplice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.91) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 54 games and Dukla Praha's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.57
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.22
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Dukla Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Teplice and 0.78 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 18W 16D 25L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 21D 29L across 59 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.19 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 13W 4D 13L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 3W 11D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.80 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Dukla Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Dukla Praha Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 21D 29L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Teplice's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.43 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Teplice or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Teplice
4
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Dukla Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Dukla Praha 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 40% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Dukla Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Dukla Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 43% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Dukla Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Dukla Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Teplice's recent matches and 67% of Dukla Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Dukla Praha attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.19 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.