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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face FK Jablonec.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FK Jablonec travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FK Jablonec away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FK Jablonec are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dukla Praha have won 0, FK Jablonec 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 47% versus FK Jablonec 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | FK Jablonec 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.91 xG and FK Jablonec 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.655 / defence 1.124 | FK Jablonec attack 1.014 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.127. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Dukla Praha games / 55 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 25% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 43%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | FK Jablonec 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 40% | FK Jablonec 20% BTTS from recent games.

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