Dukla Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FK Jablonec travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FK Jablonec are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dukla Praha have won 0, FK Jablonec 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 47% versus FK Jablonec 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | FK Jablonec 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.91 xG and FK Jablonec 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.655 / defence 1.124 | FK Jablonec attack 1.014 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.127. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Dukla Praha games / 55 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 25% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 43%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | FK Jablonec 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 40% | FK Jablonec 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 25% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Dukla Praha 0.91 / FK Jablonec 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.655 / def 1.124 | FK Jablonec attack 1.014 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.28
FK Jablonec xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Dukla Praha 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 25% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.66) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
25%
4.02
32%
3.15
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.20
1.28
FK Jablonec xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.28 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 9W 22D 29L from 60 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 16L across 60 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dukla Praha have managed 6W 10D 12L from 28 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 14W 4D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 9W 22D 29L in their last 60 games (0.82 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 32W 12D 16L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dukla Praha's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Dukla Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 54%, FK Jablonec 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dukla Praha) and 43% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 39%; Dukla Praha have failed to score in 32% of games; FK Jablonec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 39% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 43% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.91 xG and FK Jablonec 1.28 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.66 / defence 1.12 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 25% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 43%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Dukla Praha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.