Hradec Králové 0-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Plzen meet at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malsovicka arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malsovicka arena than their overall form suggests.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Plzen, who have claimed 4 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 40% versus Plzen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 41% | Plzen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.58 xG and Plzen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.036 / defence 0.770 | Plzen attack 1.140 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.099. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Hradec Králové games / 54 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 4.55. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 40% | Plzen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Hradec Králové 1.58 / Plzen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.036 / def 0.770 | Plzen attack 1.140 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Plzen xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Plzen kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Hradec Králové 0 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Plzen part of?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 50% chance of winning, Plzen a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hradec Králové and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 3 | Plzen 4W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (1.04) and Plzen's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.14x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.56
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.54
0.96
Plzen xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
4%
22.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.96 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 14D 21L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 34W 11D 13L from 58 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (13W 9D 6L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 5D 8L from 28 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.90 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Plzen have gone 34W 11D 13L in their last 58 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.71 PPG; Plzen away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Plzen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Plzen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 39%, Plzen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Hradec Králové) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Plzen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Plzen tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plzen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Hradec Králové 0-3 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.58 xG and Plzen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against Plzen attack 1.14 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Plzen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.