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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.

Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FK Jablonec, 3 for Sigma Olomouc and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 37% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Sigma Olomouc 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.916 / defence 0.796 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.075 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.070. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 FK Jablonec games / 54 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 4.55. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.

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