FK Jablonec 1-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FK Jablonec, 3 for Sigma Olomouc and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 37% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Sigma Olomouc 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.916 / defence 0.796 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.075 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.070. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 FK Jablonec games / 54 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 4.55. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FK Jablonec 1.44 / Sigma Olomouc 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.916 / def 0.796 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.075 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sigma Olomouc xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 48% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 4 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.07x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.38
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.36
0.92
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.92 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 32W 12D 15L from 59 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 22L across 59 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 17W 8D 4L from 29 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 7W 10D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 32W 12D 15L in their last 59 games (1.83 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 15D 22L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.03 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.07 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 38%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FK Jablonec) and 45% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 42%, Sigma Olomouc 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.