Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.70 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 3W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 45% versus Slovan Liberec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Slovan Liberec 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.732 / defence 1.106 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.171 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Bohemians 1905 games / 54 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 47%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 2.13. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.93 / Slovan Liberec 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.732 / def 1.106 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.171 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Slovan Liberec xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 24% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 4 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.73) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.17x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
24%
4.10
28%
3.54
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.33
1.40
Slovan Liberec xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
6%
16.68
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.40 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 15D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.46 PPG from 56 outings (22W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.46 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 8D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.50 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 16D 18L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.04 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 46%, Slovan Liberec 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 54% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 36% of games; Slovan Liberec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 54% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 54% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec finished level at 0-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.40 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 47%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Slovan Liberec 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.