Slovan Liberec 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Baník Ostrava travel to Stadion U Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slovan Liberec stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Slovan Liberec's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Baník Ostrava have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Baník Ostrava 3, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Slovan Liberec 2–0 Baník Ostrava — a Slovan Liberec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 45% versus Baník Ostrava 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 45% | Baník Ostrava 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.41 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.104 / defence 0.748 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.788 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.240. Baník Ostrava's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Slovan Liberec have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Baník Ostrava's projected output down. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 51 games and Baník Ostrava's last 51.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 52% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 18%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.92 | Draw 3.38 | Baník Ostrava 5.49. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 30% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 52% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.41 / Baník Ostrava 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.104 / def 0.748 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.788 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Baník Ostrava xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 52% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 51 games and Baník Ostrava's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.38
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.15
0.73
Baník Ostrava xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.73 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 16D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.57 PPG from 53 outings (24W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.49 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 12W 8D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.34 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
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❓ Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.69 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Slovan Liberec 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 35%, Baník Ostrava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Slovan Liberec) and 38% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 31%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 27% of games; Baník Ostrava in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 38% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 73% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.41 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.10 / defence 0.75 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 52% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 18%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 45%, Baník Ostrava 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.49 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.