Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slovácko stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Slovácko at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Pardubice — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pardubice away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pardubice are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Slovácko, 2 for Pardubice and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Slovácko 1–1 Pardubice — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Pardubice trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 37% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Pardubice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.48 xG and Pardubice 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.997 / defence 1.101 | Pardubice attack 1.317 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.189. Pardubice have an above-average attack rating of 1.317, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from Slovácko's last 52 games and Pardubice's last 52.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.12 | Draw 3.89 | Pardubice 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Slovácko's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovácko 40% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Slovácko 1.48 / Pardubice 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.997 / def 1.101 | Pardubice attack 1.317 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Pardubice xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 32% chance of winning, Pardubice a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 52 games and Pardubice's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.89
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.21
1.72
Pardubice xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.72 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 18D 27L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.93 PPG from 57 outings (13W 14D 30L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 0.95 PPG, Pardubice on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 9W 9D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.64 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.95 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Slovácko (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Slovácko vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 18D 27L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 14D 30L in their last 57 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Pardubice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.29 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Slovácko 0-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 39%, Pardubice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Slovácko) and 54% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 43% of games; Pardubice in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slovácko's recent matches and 46% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Slovácko's recent games and 54% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Slovácko's recent matches and 61% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 2-0 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.48 xG and Pardubice 1.72 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Pardubice attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Pardubice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.95 PPG, Pardubice 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.