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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Hradec Králové winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 38% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Bohemians 1905 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.881 / defence 0.854 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.841 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.202. Data: 56 Hradec Králové games / 56 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 1905 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.

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