Hradec Králové 2-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Slavia Praha travel to Malsovicka arena to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Malsovicka arena, Hradec Králové have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slavia Praha are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 3 for Slavia Praha and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slavia Praha trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 39% versus Slavia Praha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Slavia Praha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 0.97 xG and Slavia Praha 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.942 / defence 0.797 | Slavia Praha attack 1.335 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.186. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Hradec Králové games / 58 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 40%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Slavia Praha 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 20% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Hradec Králové 0.97 / Slavia Praha 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.942 / def 0.797 | Slavia Praha attack 1.335 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Slavia Praha xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 26% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 3 | Slavia Praha 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
26%
3.83
33%
2.99
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.23
1.26
Slavia Praha xG
3.83
26%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.26 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 26W 14D 22L from 62 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 49W 10D 3L across 62 games — 2.53 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 14W 9D 7L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 20W 7D 3L across 30 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.21 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Slavia Praha in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 26W 14D 22L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 49W 10D 3L in their last 62 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.70 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 37%, Slavia Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hradec Králové) and 43% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 47% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 43% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slavia Praha 2-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.97 xG and Slavia Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Slavia Praha attack 1.33 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 40%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.