Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Slovácko travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slovácko — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 0.90 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sigma Olomouc's 30% rate and Slovácko's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Slovácko and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 54% versus Slovácko 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.59 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / defence 1.083 | Slovácko attack 0.900 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.188. Data: 58 Sigma Olomouc games / 58 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.85. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 57% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Slovácko 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.59 / Slovácko 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / def 1.083 | Slovácko attack 0.900 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Slovácko xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Record (8 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 4 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.98x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.74
1.16
Slovácko xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
19.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.16 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 16D 24L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.97 PPG from 63 outings (14W 19D 30L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.35 PPG, Slovácko on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (4W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.87 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 23W 16D 24L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 19D 30L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Slovácko have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 55%, Slovácko 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sigma Olomouc) and 45% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slovácko in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 39% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 45% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovácko 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 2-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.59 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Slovácko attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Slovácko 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.