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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Sparta Praha.

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Full Analysis

AGC Arena Na Stinadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Teplice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.

Sparta Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.20 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.30 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Sparta Praha 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Sparta Praha 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.90 xG and Sparta Praha 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.813 / defence 0.950 | Sparta Praha attack 1.130 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.199. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Teplice games / 57 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Sparta Praha 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Sparta Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.

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