Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slovácko travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sigma Olomouc's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slovácko — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 0.90 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sigma Olomouc's 30% BTTS rate and Slovácko's 30% (from Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Slovácko and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2025, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovácko — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 54% versus Slovácko 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.59 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / defence 1.083 | Slovácko attack 0.900 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.188. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 58 games and Slovácko's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.22 | Draw 3.40 | Slovácko 3.91. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both teams scored in only 30% of Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and 30% of Slovácko's last 10 away games, but Poisson BTTS probability is 57% — the model's attack ratings are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 30% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.59 / Slovácko 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / def 1.083 | Slovácko attack 0.900 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Slovácko xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.98x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 58 games and Slovácko's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.74
1.16
Slovácko xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
19.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.16 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 16D 24L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.97 PPG from 63 outings (14W 19D 30L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.35 PPG, Slovácko on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.65 points per game from their last 31 away games (4W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.87 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 23W 16D 24L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 19D 30L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Slovácko have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Slovácko 1-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 55%, Slovácko 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sigma Olomouc) and 45% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slovácko in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 39% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 45% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 71% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovácko 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 2-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.59 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Slovácko attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Slovácko 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.