Slovan Liberec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion U Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion U Nisy — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion U Nisy. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion U Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Slovan Liberec 3W, Mlada Boleslav 3W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 45% versus Mlada Boleslav 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 43% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.51 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.943 / defence 0.808 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.166 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.178. Data: 58 Slovan Liberec games / 58 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Mlada Boleslav 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 30% | Mlada Boleslav 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.51 / Mlada Boleslav 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.943 / def 0.808 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.166 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 44% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Slovan Liberec 3W | Draws 3 | Mlada Boleslav 3W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.94) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.17x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.37
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.62
1.11
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.11 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 23W 18D 19L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 25L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.15 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 14W 8D 6L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 62%.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 18D 25L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.79 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 36%, Mlada Boleslav 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Slovan Liberec) and 64% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 68% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 64% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 0-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.51 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.11 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 43%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.45 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.