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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Baník Ostrava — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.10 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Bohemians 1905 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.059 / defence 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.783 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.178. Data: 58 Baník Ostrava games / 58 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 22%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 4.55. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 40% | Bohemians 1905 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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