Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sigma Olomouc's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bohemians 1905's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.00 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Bohemians 1905 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 53% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Bohemians 1905 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sigma Olomouc surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bohemians 1905 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / defence 0.795 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.095. Sigma Olomouc have a tight defence (rating 0.795), which is pulling Bohemians 1905's projected output down. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 53 games and Bohemians 1905's last 53.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.62 | Draw 3.09 | Bohemians 1905 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 20% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.10 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / def 0.795 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.86) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.07x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 53 games and Bohemians 1905's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.09
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.03
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 15D 22L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.16 PPG from 57 outings (17W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.16 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 13W 5D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.00 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905, the earliest from May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 54%, Bohemians 1905 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sigma Olomouc) and 43% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 43% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 43% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 68% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.80 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.