Pardubice 3-3 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Pardubice versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
České Budějovice (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Pardubice against 1.30 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pardubice 0W, České Budějovice 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 59% and České Budějovice 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 68% | České Budějovice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.04 xG and České Budějovice 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.615 / defence 1.343 | České Budějovice attack 0.871 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.186. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Pardubice games / 23 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 45%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | České Budějovice 2.22. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 30% | České Budějovice 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Pardubice 1.04 / České Budějovice 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.615 / def 1.343 | České Budějovice attack 0.871 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.39
České Budějovice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Pardubice 3 - 3 České Budějovice.
Where is Pardubice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs České Budějovice part of?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 28% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pardubice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.87x) against Pardubice's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.71
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.43
1.39
České Budějovice xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.39 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 7D 11L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Pardubice against 1.14 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 1W 5D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.45 points per game from 11 outings (0W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.32 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or České Budějovice away?
Pardubice's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.73 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 36%, České Budějovice 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pardubice) and 64% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 54% of games; České Budějovice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Pardubice's recent matches and 64% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Pardubice's matches and 64% of České Budějovice's.
Do Pardubice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 24, as Pardubice and České Budějovice drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.04 xG and České Budějovice 1.39 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.61 / defence 1.34 against České Budějovice attack 0.87 / defence 1.47, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 28% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 45%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 68%, České Budějovice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.86 PPG, České Budějovice 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.