České Budějovice 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for České Budějovice, 1.00 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FK Jablonec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: České Budějovice 0W, FK Jablonec 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 62% versus FK Jablonec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | FK Jablonec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.43 xG and FK Jablonec 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.919 / defence 1.056 | FK Jablonec attack 0.749 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.151. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 České Budějovice games / 24 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 49% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 24%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | FK Jablonec 4.17. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 60% | FK Jablonec 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 49% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG České Budějovice 1.43 / FK Jablonec 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.919 / def 1.056 | FK Jablonec attack 0.749 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FK Jablonec xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
České Budějovice 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec part of?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 49% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both České Budějovice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.92) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.75x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.72
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.34
0.91
FK Jablonec xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.91 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 7W 8D 9L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec's form line: 4W 11D 9L from 24 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for České Budějovice against 0.96 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 5D 6L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.79 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 11D 9L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or FK Jablonec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.92 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
2
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 58%, FK Jablonec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (České Budějovice) and 58% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of České Budějovice's matches and 58% of FK Jablonec's.
Do České Budějovice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.43 xG and FK Jablonec 0.91 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 0.75 / defence 1.36, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 49% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 24%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, FK Jablonec 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.21 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.