Slovan Liberec 4-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pardubice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Slovan Liberec, 1.20 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 48% versus Pardubice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 39% | Pardubice 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and Pardubice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.748 / defence 1.067 | Pardubice attack 0.886 / defence 1.489. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.170. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.489 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Slovan Liberec games / 23 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 30% | Pardubice 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.26 / Pardubice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.748 / def 1.067 | Pardubice attack 0.886 / def 1.489 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Pardubice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 9 March 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Slovan Liberec 4 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 40% chance of winning, Pardubice a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Slovan Liberec 0W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Pardubice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.75) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.89x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.60
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.36
1.11
Pardubice xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.11 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 7W 6D 10L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 4W 8D 11L from 23 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 0.87 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.17 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 4W 8D 11L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Pardubice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.40 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 0-4 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Pardubice?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 30%, Pardubice 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Slovan Liberec) and 80% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 30% of Slovan Liberec's games and 80% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 80% of Pardubice's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Pardubice 4-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and Pardubice 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Pardubice attack 0.89 / defence 1.49, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 39%, Pardubice 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.17 PPG, Pardubice 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.