Plzen 4-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Plzen welcome Pardubice to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Plzen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Plzen have won 1, Pardubice 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Plzen trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Pardubice trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 38% versus Pardubice 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 48% | Pardubice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.86 xG and Pardubice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.265 / defence 0.861 | Pardubice attack 0.979 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.182. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Plzen games / 21 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 20%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Pardubice 89% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Plzen 1.86 / Pardubice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.265 / def 0.861 | Pardubice attack 0.979 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Plzen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Pardubice kick off?
Plzen vs Pardubice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen 4 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Plzen vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Pardubice part of?
Plzen vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 58% chance of winning, Pardubice a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.26) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
58%
1.74
22%
4.45
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.86
1.00
Pardubice xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
32.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Plzen and 1.00 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 16W 3D 2L from 21 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 10L across 21 games — 0.90 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 8W 1D 0L from 9 games — 2.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.14 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 62%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 16W 3D 2L in their last 21 games (2.43 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Pardubice away?
Plzen's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.78 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Plzen or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Pardubice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
2
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Pardubice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Pardubice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 33%, Pardubice 89% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Plzen and 78% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Plzen's games and 89% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Plzen's matches and 78% of Pardubice's.
Do Plzen and Pardubice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 4-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.86 xG and Pardubice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 0.86 against Pardubice attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 58% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 20%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 48%, Pardubice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.