Teplice 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 1D 5L at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.60 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 48% versus Slovácko 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 56% | Slovácko 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.07 xG and Slovácko 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.818 / defence 1.040 | Slovácko attack 0.839 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.199. Data: 23 Teplice games / 23 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 36% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Slovácko 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Slovácko 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 36% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Teplice 1.07 / Slovácko 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.818 / def 1.040 | Slovácko attack 0.839 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Teplice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Slovácko xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 36% chance of winning, Slovácko a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Slovácko (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.82x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.35
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.12
1.05
Slovácko xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Teplice and 1.05 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 3D 14L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 4W 1D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.74 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 6W 3D 14L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 13W 4D 6L in their last 23 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.18 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Slovácko in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Slovácko 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Teplice) and 73% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Teplice's games and 73% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Teplice's matches and 73% of Slovácko's.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.07 xG and Slovácko 1.05 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Slovácko attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 36% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 56%, Slovácko 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.