Karviná 2-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 38%, yet in-form České Budějovice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and České Budějovice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
České Budějovice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
České Budějovice arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, České Budějovice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus České Budějovice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 46% | České Budějovice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.34 xG and České Budějovice 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.813 / defence 1.306 | České Budějovice attack 0.838 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.165. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Karviná games / 22 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 38% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 35%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | České Budějovice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form České Budějovice (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 80% | České Budějovice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 38% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Karviná 1.34 / České Budějovice 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.813 / def 1.306 | České Budějovice attack 0.838 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Karviná (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.27
České Budějovice xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs České Budějovice kick off?
Karviná vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Karviná 2 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Karviná vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs České Budějovice part of?
Karviná vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 38% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Karviná and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.84x) against Karviná's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.81
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
České Budějovice xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Karviná and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Karviná and 1.27 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 1W 6D 15L from 22 games, a 0.41 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 9L across 22 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours České Budějovice by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 0W 4D 6L from 10 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 4D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 1W 6D 15L in their last 22 games (0.41 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or České Budějovice away?
Karviná's home record (0.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.40 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Karviná
1
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
From 7 meetings on record, Karviná have won 4, České Budějovice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Karviná, 60% for České Budějovice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Karviná and 60% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Karviná's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Karviná's matches and 60% of České Budějovice's.
Do Karviná and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and České Budějovice finished level at 2-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.34 xG and České Budějovice 1.27 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.81 / defence 1.31 against České Budějovice attack 0.84 / defence 1.41, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 38% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 35%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 46%, České Budějovice 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, České Budějovice arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.